Sensitivity of the simulation of extreme precipitation events in China to different cumulus parameterization schemes and the underlying mechanisms

Abstract

The ability of climate models to capture extreme precipitation events is crucially important, but most of the existing models contain significant biases for the simulation of extreme precipitation. To understand the causes of these biases, we used five different cumulus parameterization schemes in the regional Climate–Weather Research and Forecasting (CWRF) model to investigate its performance and biases in the simulation of extreme precipitation events in China. In general, the ensemble cumulus parameterization (ECP) scheme was the most skillful in reproducing the spatial distribution of the 95th percentile daily precipitation (P95) and the other four schemes either overestimated (the Kain-Fritsch Eta and Tiedtke schemes) or underestimated (the Betts-Miller-Janjic and New Simplified Arakawa-Schubert schemes) P95. Compared with the observational data, ECP scheme significantly improved the simulation of extreme precipitation in China and had the highest correlation and the smallest root-mean-square error in most areas and seasons. To clarify the underlying physical processes of P95 simulation biases, we established a regression model of extreme precipitation based on ECP scheme. This showed that P95 in North China is mainly affected by moisture convergence, planetary boundary layer height and lifting condensation level (relative importance 18–32%). In Central China, the vertical upward motion of water vapor, sensible heat flux and planetary boundary layer height (relative importance 18–30%) are main factors associated with P95. In South China, the vertical upward motion and horizontal transport of water vapor are predominant (relative importance 26–37%). In addition, the net surface energy, surface and atmospheric radiation flux, total precipitable water, convective available potential energy and cloud water path also have a high correlation with P95 (the second most important factor; relative importance 14–31%). The influence of each factor on the simulation of P95 is different when using different cumulus parameterization schemes and the interaction among the different factors determines the ability of CWRF model to simulate extreme precipitation. These results provide important references for future model evaluations and improvements.