Abstract
Extreme precipitation events, which have intensified with global warming over the past several decades, will become more intense in the future according to model projections. Although many studies have been performed, the occurrence patterns for extreme precipitation events in past and future periods in China remain unresolved. Additionally, few studies have explained how extreme precipitation events developed over the past 58 years and how they will evolve in the next 90 years as global warming becomes much more serious. In this paper, we evaluated the spatiotemporal characteristics of extreme precipitation events using indices for the frequency, quantity, intensity, and proportion of extreme precipitation, which were proposed by the World Meteorological Organization. We simultaneously analyzed the spatiotemporal characteristics of extreme precipitation in China from 2011 to 2100 using data obtained from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models. Despite the fixed threshold, 95th percentile precipitation values were also used as the extreme precipitation threshold to reduce the influence of various rainfall events caused by different geographic locations; then, eight extreme precipitation indices (EPIs) were calculated to evaluate extreme precipitation in China. We found that the spatial characteristics of the eight EPIs exhibited downward trends from south to north. In the periods 1960–2017 and 2011–2100, trends in the EPIs were positive, but there were differences between different regions. In the past 58 years, the extreme precipitation increased in the northwest, southeast, and the Tibet Plateau of China, while decreased in northern China. Almost all the trends of EPIs are positive in the next two periods (2011–2055 and 2056–2100) except for some EPIs, such as intensity of extreme precipitation, which decrease in southeastern China in the second period (2056–2100). This study suggests that the frequency of extreme precipitation events in China will progressively increase, which implies that a substantial burden will be placed on social economies and terrestrial ecological processes.
Highlights
In the context of global warming, the occurrences of extreme weather events and their trends have become the focus of most climate change studies
This study suggests that the frequency of extreme precipitation events in China will progressively increase, which implies that a substantial burden will be placed on social economies and terrestrial ecological processes
Our results indicate that the AEPI (Figure 2i) in China exhibited obvious geographic differences similar to those of the normal intensity of the precipitation index SDII (Figure 2e), but the values of AEPI were much greater
Summary
In the context of global warming, the occurrences of extreme weather events and their trends have become the focus of most climate change studies. The probability of heavy rainfall throughout most areas of the world has increased [1], and the total amount of extreme precipitation has increased significantly since the 1950s [2,3], with the largest changes occurring in the tropics [4]. The frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation will show similar upward trends as the global climate continues to warm [5,6,7], the changes in precipitation will enhance differences between arid and humid areas [8,9], and the effects of extreme precipitation may further increase this discrepancy. Since the late 1960s, heavy precipitation in North America has shown an upward trend [10].
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