Sensitivity analysis of asphalt pavement performance under freeze-thaw cycles by applying reliability method

Abstract

Asphalt pavement performance remains pivotal in ensuring the longevity and safety of our transport networks, especially in regions that face unique environmental challenges such as the Qinghai-Tibet plateau. This study presents a groundbreaking reliability model for the evaluation of asphalt pavement performance, based on the esteemed AASHTO design equation. Four cardinal uncertainty factors, encompassing the environment, traffic loads, pavement structures and materials, and anthropogenic activities, were meticulously integrated into the performance analysis. Delving deep into the intricate dynamics of the pavement structure strength, five random variables - SN, ΔPSI, Mr, ESAL0and r - were identified and analyzed, reflecting the inherent uncertainties during its lifecycle. A notable observation was the linear decline of SNF-T with increasing freeze-thaw actions. Additionally, a comprehensive sensitivity analysis highlighted the profound influence of ESAL0 on the sensitivity of the load equation and emphasized the dominant role of SNF-T in pavement structural performance evaluation. This investigation not only unravels the complex interactions governing asphalt pavement behavior but also provides an invaluable framework for future research, design optimization, and infrastructure maintenance strategies in challenging terrains.