Selection of energy matrix sources in Chile using a fuzzy logic decision approach

Abstract

Chile’s 2050 energy policy ultimate goals are to produce a sustainable model of economic growth respectful of the environment where energy is produced efficiently and reliably. Renewable energy sources are considered the main drive for developing by 2050 at least 70% of the total energy in Chile. This study aims to provide a quantitative analysis for the selection of the most sustainable energy production methods using the compromise ranking method (VIKOR) that uses maximum group utility for the majority and a minimum of individual regret for the opponent. Since all evaluations are provided via intervals, the possible degree theory is used to compare them. Nine major criteria are critically used for this purpose and prioritized using analytical hierarchical process (AHP). Since Chile’s energy production matrix still relies heavily on fossil fuels with major concerns of GHG emissions, all major potential energy sources in Chile are considered including ocean energy in addition to nuclear energy. This study shows that biomasses are the best compromise solution and that traditional and modern nuclear energy plants score consistently better than solar power. Large hydro power plants rank very high but in light of the social opposition present in the country, they might not be easy to build as hoped. Ocean power is far superior to geothermal energy and comparable to wind power and for this reason it should be considered together with nuclear power for the future Chilean energy matrix.