Seismic systems of Japan: Entropy and monitoring of the Tohoku earthquake, March 11, 2011

Abstract

The seismic entropy method allows us to distinguish the parts of the lithosphere that are the seismic systems responsible for the preparation of strong earthquakes of a certain energy level. A description of the seismic systems in Japan that are responsible for preparation of an ensemble of strong (M ≥ 7.8) earthquakes is presented. The parameters of cumulative energy and entropy allow for the description of the dynamic behavior and temporal evolution of the complex seismically active lithosphere structures around the island of Honshu, which have been formed by the interaction of the Pacific, Philippine and Eurasian plates. The systems and regularities revealed give us the opportunity to monitor the development of seismic processes and to predict the onset of instability at the long-, mediumand short-term stages of preparation of catastrophic earthquakes. The capabilities of the method are shown by online monitoring and the forecast of the recent catastrophic Tohoku earthquake of March 11, 2011, which was based on track and energy diagrams.