Modeling kinematics of the Tauro-Caucasus region and dynamics of strong (M ≥ 7.1) earthquakes preparation

Abstract

Seismotectonics of the Tauro-Caucasus region is considered for the purpose of mathematical modeling of its dynamics at strong earthquakes’ preparation. Based on the author’s studies, the preliminary kinematic plate-block model of the region is designed. The comparative analysis of the model and the problems of soil mechanics showed that deformations, appeared during the process of geological evolution due to the movement of Arabian Plate to the region, could form the modern geometry of the main seismotectonic structures. The dynamic behavior of the obtained model was analyzed on the basis of statistical seismic parameters of the total energy and entropy. The space-time and energy dependences between the parameters of strong (M ≥ 7.1) earthquakes of the Armenian Upland and the total parameters of relatively weak indicator earthquakes of the Tauro-Caucasus region, controlling the origination of instability in the specific volume of lithosphere, are revealed. A possibility of applying the seismic entropy method for the quantitative description of the dynamic behavior of large-volume complex geological media, responsible for preparation of earthquakes of certain energy levels, is grounded.