Seismic systems, entropy production law, and ensembles of strong earthquakes

Abstract

The regularities are revealed which, based on seismic statistics, govern the evolution of the dynamics in the preparation of strong earthquakes within discrete closed volumes of the lithosphere (seismic systems, SSs). This concept was previously formulated as a phenomenological approach based on seismic entropy for real-time monitoring the strong earthquakes. The seismic parameters of cumulative energy and entropy contain the energy–time memory about the previous earthquakes within the considered volume, which allows the real-time description of the nonequilibrium spatiotemporal dynamics of the active volume of the Earth’s lithosphere. The power law relating the information entropy and cumulative energy is theoretically derived, which supports the previously established empirical relationships. In the SSs, the strong earthquakes pertaining to a certain magnitude interval are united into the ensembles forming the seismic cycles which periodically restore the equilibrium state of the system. With the lapse of time, the strong earthquakes of the ensemble tend to fill up the SS. The configuration, the size of the SS, and the minimal parameter of action lead to the selectivity and discreteness of the notion of magnitude of an earthquake, depending on the scale of the system. Each SS has a certain minimal threshold magnitude above which the Gutenberg–Richter law is violated, whereas the indicator earthquakes, governed by the Poisson distribution within the scope of the entropy production law, play a crucial role in the preparation of the strong earthquakes. Some results are illustrated by the example of the recent strong earthquakes in Central Kuriles.