Abstract
Seismic risk analysis is greatly helpful to seismic safety evaluation of dams. A preliminary study on seismic risk analysis of arch dam based on numerical simulation is presented. The numerical procedure approximately takes into account the influence of concrete heterogeneity, it can model the response of the dam from elastic vibration to ultimate failure. Five seismic damage levels including no damage, minor damage, medium damage, serious damage and collapse of dam are defined. Through Monte-Carlo analysis of nonlinear response of the dam, which considers uncertainty persistent in ground motion input as well as material properties of concrete, status of the dam after subjected to earthquakes is obtained. The final seismic risk of the dam, which conforms to the norm distribution, is reached based on data fitting. The results provide meaningful reference to seismic safety evaluation of the dam.
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