Secularization, Union Formation Practices, and Marital Stability: Evidence from Italy

Roberto Impicciatore,Francesco C Billari

doi:10.1007/s10680-012-9255-4

Abstract

Descriptive statistics indicate that civil marriages and marriages preceded by premarital cohabitation are more unstable, i.e., more frequently followed by divorce. However, the literature has shown that selectivity plays an important role in the relationship between premarital cohabitation and union dissolution. We do not have evidence to date regarding the selectivity in the effect of civil marriage. The Italian case appears particularly interesting given the recent diffusion of premarital cohabitation and civil marriage. Using micro-level data from a national-level representative survey conducted in 2003, we develop a multiprocess model that allows unobserved heterogeneity to be correlated across the three decisions (premarital cohabitation, civil marriage, and divorce). Our results show that selectivity is the main factor that explains the higher divorce rates among those who experience premarital cohabitation and a civil marriage. Net of selectivity, the causal effect on union dissolution disappears.

Highlights

IntroductionChanges in family and fertility behaviors in the western world have been strongly linked to secularization (defined, for simplicity, as an overall reduction in religious practice; for a critical analysis of the concept of secularization see, among others, Norris and Inglehart 2004; Gorski and Altınordu 2008), to the withdrawal from traditional religious beliefs, and to a decline in subjective religiosity among individuals (Lesthaeghe and Surkyn 1988; Van de Kaa 1987; Lesthaeghe and Neidert 2006)
Changes in family and fertility behaviors in the western world have been strongly linked to secularization, to the withdrawal from traditional religious beliefs, and to a decline in subjective religiosity among individuals (Lesthaeghe and Surkyn 1988; Van de Kaa 1987; Lesthaeghe and Neidert 2006)
These findings show that multivariate models that account for some socio-demographic observed factors confirm the indications derived from descriptive analysis that premarital cohabitation and civil marriage weaken marriage stability

Summary

Introduction

Changes in family and fertility behaviors in the western world have been strongly linked to secularization (defined, for simplicity, as an overall reduction in religious practice; for a critical analysis of the concept of secularization see, among others, Norris and Inglehart 2004; Gorski and Altınordu 2008), to the withdrawal from traditional religious beliefs, and to a decline in subjective religiosity among individuals (Lesthaeghe and Surkyn 1988; Van de Kaa 1987; Lesthaeghe and Neidert 2006). Starting from the three waves of the World Values Surveys between 1981 and 2001 which contain numerous questions on religiosity, Norris and Inglehart (2004) confirm the downward trend in religious participation in a large number of countries, except in Italy, Ireland, and the United States. We may imagine a positive effect of education on the propensity to cohabit and to start a marriage with a civil ceremony as the percentages in Table 3 suggest.. To take the ‘‘couple perspective’’ into account, we considered the husband’s level of education: Table 3 shows that highly educated husbands increase the incidence of secularized union formation and marital disruption We may imagine a positive effect of education on the propensity to cohabit and to start a marriage with a civil ceremony as the percentages in Table 3 suggest. To take the ‘‘couple perspective’’ into account, we considered the husband’s level of education: Table 3 shows that highly educated husbands increase the incidence of secularized union formation and marital disruption

Objectives

Results

Conclusion