Abstract
BackgroundLeptospirosis is a disease which occurs worldwide but particularly affects tropical areas. Transmission of the disease is dependent on its excretion by reservoir animals and the presence of moist environment which allows the survival of the bacteria.Methods and FindingsA retrospective study was undertaken to describe seasonal patterns of human leptospirosis cases reported by the Centre National de Références des Leptospiroses (CNRL, Pasteur Institute, Paris) between 1998 and 2008, to determine if there was an association between the occurrence of diagnosed cases and rainfall, temperature and global solar radiation (GSR). Meteorological data were recorded in the town of Saint-Benoît (Météo France “Beaufonds-Miria” station), located on the windward (East) coast. Time-series analysis was used to identify the variables that best described and predicted the occurrence of cases of leptospirosis on the island. Six hundred and thirteen cases were reported during the 11-year study period, and 359 cases (58.56%) were diagnosed between February and May. A significant correlation was identified between the number of cases in a given month and the associated cumulated rainfall as well as the mean monthly temperature recorded 2 months prior to diagnosis (r = 0.28 and r = 0.23 respectively). The predictive model includes the number of cases of leptospirosis recorded 1 month prior to diagnosis (b = 0.193), the cumulated monthly rainfall recorded 2 months prior to diagnosis (b = 0.145), the average monthly temperature recorded 0 month prior to diagnosis (b = 3.836), and the average monthly GSR recorded 0 month prior to diagnosis (b = −1.293).ConclusionsLeptospirosis has a seasonal distribution in Reunion Island. Meteorological data can be used to predict the occurrence of the disease and our statistical model can help to implement seasonal prevention measures.
Highlights
With more than 500,000 cases per year, leptospirosis is one of the most widespread diseases in the world [1]
Leptospirosis has a seasonal distribution in Reunion Island
Infection in humans is either via direct contact with the urine of an infected animal or indirectly via the contaminated environment [4]. The latter is the major source of leptospirosis infections in tropical areas [5]
Summary
With more than 500,000 cases per year, leptospirosis is one of the most widespread diseases in the world [1]. Infection in humans is either via direct contact with the urine of an infected animal or indirectly via the contaminated environment [4]. The latter is the major source of leptospirosis infections in tropical areas [5]. Many infections result from walking barefoot in damp conditions or gardening with bare hands [12]. Recent outbreaks such as the 1998 Lake Springfield Triathlon [13] and the 2000 Borneo Eco-Challenge [14] outbreaks revealed the risk of exposure to infection to leisure activities. Transmission of the disease is dependent on its excretion by reservoir animals and the presence of moist environment which allows the survival of the bacteria
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