Seasonal Shifting Patterns Emerge in Projected Trends of Solar Photovoltaic Potential over China 

Abstract

With the projected rising use of solar energy, comprehensive knowledge of the spatial-temporal variations of future photovoltaic (PV) potential is of necessity, which however remains absent. Here based on the multi-model output from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6, trends of PV potential in three shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP) were examined with a focus on the seasonal characteristics. In SSP126 and SSP245, increases of PV potential are found over eastern Central China (ECC) in contrast to decline trends over Northwestern China in SSP370. Notably, the positive trends exhibit a distinct seasonality with maximum centers shifting south- north-south from spring to winter, forming an inverted V-shape pattern. This pattern is primarily determined by the reductions of anthropogenic aerosols. Meanwhile, the magnitudes of the maximum centers are strongly modified by aerosol compositions, background climatology PV potential, and the pace and amounts of emission reductions. Northern ECC shows the most profound increase in summertime PV potential among all regions and seasons. This increase remains significant and stable during different sub-time ranges from 2015 to 2050. The distinct seasonality signifies possibilities of coordinating energy supply across broader regions and multi- timescales, providing references for future PV deployment.