High Emission Scenario Substantially Damages China's Photovoltaic Potential

Abstract

AbstractQuantifying future changes in solar photovoltaic (PV) potential is of great significance for energy planning and policy making to achieve carbon neutrality. To constrain the uncertainties of applying directly Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) projections to such quantification, we construct the performance‐weighted CMIP6 solar irradiance and air temperature data, and then assess the future changes in China's PV potential and accompanying economic benefits under three typical climate change scenarios. We find that the high emission scenario will substantially damage China's PV potential, resulting in a reduction of 314 TWh/year in electricity generation by the planned installed capacity in 2100, with a corresponding loss of US $25 billion/year. However, the low emission scenario will enhance the PV potential, yielding an additional electricity generation of 226 TWh/year and a corresponding bonus of US $18 billion/year in 2100. China's commitment to carbon neutrality will lead to low‐carbon emissions, which brings great economic rewards to its PV industry.