Sea Level Rise on Tuban Coast in East Java and its Consistenty with MAGICC/SCENGEN Prediction

Abstract

Sea level rise is one of the impacts of climate change and global warming caused by the increase of human activities leading to the increase of concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. The impacts of sea level rise itself will be greatly felt by coastal areas in island countries, one of them is Indonesia (specifically the district of Tuban). The purposes of this paper are (1) to indicate that tidal data in Semarang and Tuban (both of them are cities in the northern coast of Java) can be used to estimate the sea level rise in the region through the means of comparison, and (2) to compare sea level rise in MAGICC model and show that sea level trends for Tuban district are consistent with global values. The results shows that the tidal data in Tuban has a higher value than the tidal data in Semarang by a margin of 0.03 m, so the trend of sea level rise in Tuban is y = 0.002x + 0.751, consequently the sea level rise per year is 0.024 m. Comparison of sea level rises between the MSL data of Tuban district with MAGICC model indicates that the sea level trends for Tuban district (local) are consistent with global values, that is, in the year of 2100, the sea level rise will reach 2.64 m while emissions scenario that comes close is the WRE 550 scenario, that is, in the year of 2100, it will reach 2.9 m.