Scenario Simulation and Effects Assessment of Co-control on Pollution and Carbon Emission Reduction in Beijing

Abstract

Focused on the key areas of energy, buildings, industry, and transportation, with 2020 as the base year and 2035 as the target year, we respectively designed the baseline scenario, policy scenario, and enhanced scenario, calculated the emission reduction potential of air pollutants and CO2 of Beijing, and constructed an assessment method of co-control effect gradation index to evaluate the co-control effect of air pollutants and CO2 in the policy scenario and enhanced scenario. The results showed that in the policy scenario and enhanced scenario, the reduction rates of air pollutants emissions will reach 11%-75% and 12%-94%, respectively, and reduction rates of CO2 emissions will reach 41% and 52%, respectively, compared with those from the baseline scenario. Optimizing vehicle structure had the largest contribution to the emission reduction of NOx, VOCs, and CO2, and the emission reduction rates will reach 74%, 80%, and 31% in the policy scenario and 68%, 74%, and 22% in the enhanced scenario, respectively. Replacing coal-fired with clean energy in rural areas had the largest contribution to the emission reduction of SO2; the emission reduction rates will reach 47% and 35% in the policy scenario and enhanced scenario, respectively. Improving the green level of new buildings had the largest contribution to the emission reduction of PM10; the emission reduction rates will reach 79% and 74% in the policy scenario and enhanced scenario, respectively. Optimizing travel structure and promoting green development of digital infrastructure had the best co-control effect. The co-control effect of replacing coal-fired with clean energy in rural areas, optimizing vehicle structure, and promoting green upgrading of the manufacturing industry will be improved to a better status in the enhanced scenario. More attention should be paid to improving the proportion of green trips, implementing the promotion of new energy vehicles, and the green transportation of goods to reduce emissions in the field of transportation. At the same time, with the continuous improvement in electrification level in the end energy consumption structure, the proportion of green electricity should be increased by expanding local renewable energy power production and increasing external green electricity transmission capacity, to enhance the co-control effect of pollution and carbon reduction.