Scenario prediction of carbon peaking in China's logistics industry based on SVR

Abstract

As a strategic, basic and leading industry for the development of China's national economy, the logistics industry shoulders the important mission of implementing the national "dual carbon" goal. It is urgent to keep up with the pace of the times and accelerate the green and low-carbon process of the logistics industry. Based on the relevant data from 1998 to 2020, this paper selects 8 indicators such as fixed asset investment in the logistics industry, freight turnover, passenger turnover, freight volume, the number of trucks, PM2.5 concentration and per capita GDP. The scenario analysis method is combined with the SSA-SVR model to establish a scenario prediction model for China's logistics industry's carbon peaking. The research results show that: under the baseline scenario, the carbon emissions of China's logistics industry will peak in 2047; under the low-carbon scenario, carbon emissions will peak in 2038; under the enhanced low-carbon scenario, carbon emissions will peak in 2029. 55.94 million tons. Combined with the trend analysis results under different scenarios, China should continue to strengthen the construction of the carbon trading market, optimize the industrial structure, and accelerate the progress of carbon peaking.