Scenario planning for the development of foreign economic activity of the hotel business enterprise in the conditions of the world pandemic

Abstract

Introduction. The hotel business is traditionally considered a highly profitable area of foreign economic activity. The most significant risk factors are considered to be economic, political and social instability in countries and regions. In 2020, almost all global tourism and hotel businesses faced a serious challenge in their development – a severe crisis caused by the rapid spread of a pandemic of a new species of coronavirus (COVID-19) around the world. In the context of a global pandemic, to support the activities of the hotel business, it is necessary to clearly define the content and sequence of certain actions to achieve the goals, which determines the process of planning and forecasting the activities of the enterprise. Scenario planning is a fairly flexible process of describing possible future scenarios. This is part of strategic planning, which refers to the tools and technologies that manage future uncertainty. The purpose of the paper is to consider the scenario planning of the development of foreign economic activity of the hotel-type enterprise in conditions of economic uncertainty. The paper considers scenario planning as one of the most effective tools of strategic planning at the enterprise, which allows to forecast the development of events in the shortest possible time and update the planned indicators for its effective management. Results. In the course of this research the method of strategic planning is used – scenario planning, with the help of which all possible forecasts of events at the enterprise in crisis conditions are built. An analysis of hotel activities during the pandemic. The methods of scenario planning at the hotel business enterprise in the conditions of economic uncertainty are investigated. The difference between traditional and scenario approaches to strategic planning is clarified. Scenarios of possible events of the hotel business enterprise in the future in the conditions of a pandemic on the example of a scenario cross are developed. Conclusion. Scenario planning proved its effectiveness during the global pandemic, when hotel enterprises that applied scenario planning were ready for change and simply applied a different scenario, continuing to go with the flow. Scenarios for further development of foreign economic activity of the enterprise are determined.