Scenario Forecasting of Changes in Water Balance Components in the Ob–Irtysh Basin in the Context of Possible Climate Change

Abstract

Four global climate scenarios of the family “Special Report on Emissions Scenarios” of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which correspond to the specified scenarios of economic, technological, political, and demographic development of the human civilization were used to develop forecast versions of meteorological forcing data dynamics in the Ob–Irtysh basin in the XXI century. The obtained data were used to simulate the variants of possible changes in water balance components in this river basin up to mid-XXI century. The calculation technique is based on the use of land surface model SWAP and a generator of climate scenarios MAGICC/SCENGEN. The changes in the annual runoff of the Ob, governed by possible global climate change are compared with its natural variations caused by weather noise.