Abstract
Abstract. Scenario projections of the dynamics of meteorological characteristics for the basins of the Olenek and Indigirka rivers (the Republic of Sakha) in the XXI century have been obtained for four IPCC global climate change scenarios of SRES family which correspond to specified scenarios of economic, technological, political, and demographic development of human civilization. The projections have been used to calculate scenarios of possible changes in water balance components for the basins under consideration up to the year of 2063. The calculation procedure involves a physically-based model for heat and mass exchange between the land surface and the atmosphere SWAP and climate scenario generator MAGICC/SCENGEN.
Highlights
As noted in different Technical documents of the IPCC, climate changes, if they occur, will cause the fastest and deepest response in polar regions, which largely control the hydrological processes and water resources
Considering the role of rivers of the pan-Arctic basin in transport of heat, sediments, pollutions and biogenic substances northward, the environmental changes caused by changes in climate can have a considerable effect on the fresh water balance of the Arctic Ocean, on the influx of the above substances into it, on the formation of sea ice, and, eventually, on the thermohaline circulation and global climate
The Olenek River basin is situated in the northwestern Yakutia northward from the polar circle (Fig. 1)
Summary
As noted in different Technical documents of the IPCC, climate changes, if they occur, will cause the fastest and deepest response in polar regions, which largely control the hydrological processes and water resources. The objective of the present study is to estimate possible changes in the water balance components in the Olenek and the Indigirka river basins (situated in Yakutia, the Sakha Republic, under the most severe meteorological conditions of Eurasia) resulting from different climate change scenarios. The main features of both river basins are extremely low winter temperatures and permafrost. The Olenek River basin is situated in the northwestern Yakutia northward from the polar circle (between 106 and 126◦ E) (Fig. 1). The climate of the basin is sharply continental with air temperature ranging from very low values in winter (with minimum of −60 to −55 ◦C) to high in summer (up to 20– 30 ◦C). The vegetation is represented by moss– lichen–suffruticose tundra in the north and larch northerntaiga scarce forest in the middle and southern parts of the basin
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