A technique for scenario prediction of changes in water balance components in northern river basins in the context of possible climate change

Abstract

A method is developed for scenario prediction of changes in water balance components in northern river basins in the context of possible climate changes. The method uses the land surface model SWAP, describing the heat and mass exchange between the land surface and the atmosphere. Four IPCC climate scenarios, corresponding to specified scenarios of economic, technological, political, and demographic development of the human civilization, were used to forecast different variants of the dynamics of meteorological characteristics in the Northern Dvina River basin in the XXI century, which served as a basis for evaluating possible changes in precipitation, evaporation, and runoff from the Northern Dvina basin until the year of 2063.