Abstract
Russia's policy towards, and interventions in, secessionist conflicts inside the state, in the immediate neighbourhood, and in Europe generally, has changed profoundly from the early 1990s. It is the fear of disintegration that is now the major factor in Moscow's policy making. Russia is set on the path of strategic retreat, which still allows for some interference, but hardly for constructive engagement. In the near future, there are several specifically European factors that define the perspective of a new wave of secessionist conflicts in the region. Neither European political networks built around the OSCE, nor military ties, centred on NATO, are reliable enough to compensate for Russia's withdrawal. The alarming perspective of escalation of instabilities can only be addressed if Europe together with Russia will move forward in developing political and legal frameworks for dealing with secessionist situations.
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