Runoff simulation and hydropower resource prediction of the Kaidu River Basin in the Tianshan Mountains, China

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Abstract The Tianshan Mountains of Central Asia, highly sensitive to climate change, has been comprehensively assessed for its ecosystem vulnerability across multiple aspects. However, studies on the region’s main river systems and hydropower resources remain limited. Thus, examining the impact of climate change on the runoff and gross hydropower potential (GHP) of this region is essential for promoting sustainable development and effective management of water and hydropower resources. This study focused on the Kaidu River Basin that is situated above the Dashankou Hydropower Station on the southern slope of the Tianshan Mountains, China. By utilizing an ensemble of bias-corrected global climate models (GCMs) from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) and the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model coupled with a glacier module (VIC–Glacier), we examined the variations in future runoff and GHP during 2017–2070 under four shared socio-economic pathway (SSP) scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5) compared to the baseline period (1985–2016). The findings indicated that precipitation and temperature in the Kaidu River Basin exhibit a general upward trend under the four SSP scenarios, with the fastest rate of increase in precipitation under the SSP2-4.5 scenario and the most significant changes in mean, maximum, and minimum temperatures under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, compared to the baseline period (1980–2016). Future runoff in the basin is projected to decrease, with rates of decline under the SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios being 3.09, 3.42, 7.04, and 7.20 m3/s per decade, respectively. The trends in GHP are consistent with runoff, with rates of decline in GHP under the SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios at 507.74, 563.33, 1158.44, and 1184.52 MW/10a, respectively. Compared to the baseline period (1985–2016), the rates of change in GHP under the SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios are −20.66%, −20.93%, −18.91%, and −17.49%, respectively. The Kaidu River Basin will face significant challenges in water and hydropower resources in the future, underscoring the need to adjust water resource management and hydropower planning within the basin.