Rough Roads Ahead 2: Economic Implications of Deteriorating Highway Conditions

Abstract

This study presents a high-level, strategic assessment of the long-range implications of Oregon’s current forecast budget for highways. The current highway budget is insufficient to meet current state goals with respect to transportation system condition, requiring the Oregon Department of Transportation (ODOT) to prepare for strategic investment decisions. ODOT must conceive new ways to develop the most efficient use and management of facilities while accepting lower performance standards, shifted use of deteriorating facilities, and the need to allocate resources to priority locations.The Oregon Statewide Integrated Model was used to evaluate three hypothetical scenarios over a 20-year period, representing investment strategies implemented with budget increases and compared with the current 20-year forecast budget. The purpose of the analysis was to evaluate the potential impact of highway disinvestment on Oregon’s economic competitiveness. The primary focus was on bridges, as over half of Oregon’s bridges are nearing the end of their life cycle. Weight-restricted bridges significantly impact the cost of moving freight in Oregon, where over 70% of freight moves by truck. In addition, registered passenger vehicle records were used to estimate the impacts of deteriorating pavement conditions on Oregon highway users.