Role of Renewable Energy Scenarios in Carbon Dioxide Emissions Forecasting in Iran in Outlook 2030

Abstract

In recent years, Iran is one of the ten most polluting countries in the world. However, economically, Iran's GDP is lower than other polluting countries, which indicates the high intensity of energy in this country. In this article, Iran's CO2 emissions in 2030 are predicted by regression method under several scenarios of renewable energy use according to the targets of the law on the Five-Year Economic, Cultural and Social Development Plan to examine Iran's commitment to the Paris Agreement. The findings suggest that Iran is unlikely meet its commitment to the Paris Agreement under the current scenario. However, full implementation of some scenarios in the five-year development plan law could have met its 4% or 12% target (lifting sanctions and raising funding) to reduce CO2 emissions by 2030. Of course, this requires a lot of investment in the renewable energy sector, and policymakers in the Iranian energy sector should pay more attention to this issue. However, the government does not have a specific plan in this regard.