Risks of strong atmospheric drought in the territory of Saratov region under conditions of modern climate change

Abstract

This article provides a comparative characteristic of the probability of severe and very strong droughts in certain segments of the growing season for 1971–2000 and 2001–2020 on natural zones of the Saratov region. The initial material was climatic data from meteorological stations in the Saratov region. Yield data were taken from statistical compilations. The study found that the frequency of severe droughts with GTC?0,5 in 2001–2020 increased in comparison with 1971–2000 during the growing season of cereals (May-July) by 13% in semi-desert areas. During the autumn growing season of winter crops (August-September), the risks of such droughts increased throughout the region by 15–26%. In general, during the warm period (May-September), the frequency of severe droughts increased markedly in dry-steppe and semi-desert regions (by 16 and 23%, respectively). The risks of very severe droughts with GTC <0,4 during the growing season of grain crops (May-July) increased by 14% in semi-arid regions. During the autumn growing season of winter crops (August-September), the risks of such droughts increased throughout the region by 9–24%. In general, during the warm period (May-September), the frequency of very severe droughts increased in the forest-steppe and semi-desert regions (by 5 and 10%, respectively). Also, the article provides meteorological characteristics of the most severe droughts of the last half century and an assessment of the risks of a grain yield shortfall for winter and spring wheat in the region as a whole. The expediency of taking the necessary measures to reduce damage in advance is shown.