Abstract
Monthly precipitation and the 3-month Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) were used to reveal the patterns of rainfall and severe drought frequency over the East European Plain in the period 1953–2011 in the opposite phases of the quasibiennial oscillation (QBO). Differences of precipitation and severe drought frequency in May and in June in the westward and eastward phases of the QBO phases are explained by circulation variations. The analysis indicates less frequent severe drought events over Ukraine and at the center of the European part of Russia in May in the westward QBO phase due to the intensification of the storm track over the East European Plain. The weather conditions in May and in June in the years of the westward QBO phase were more favorable for the yield. The difference of spring wheat yield in the westward and eastward QBO phase exceeds the same difference of winter wheat yield in the Central Black Earth region and in the south regions. Ukraine and the region to the east of the Sea of Azov are the most vulnerable areas of increased risk of severe drought during the active growing season at the end of the 20th and beginning of the 21st century.
Highlights
Drought as a natural phenomenon affects the ecosystems for a long time causing catastrophic damage to the environment and human activities
We investigate circulation differences in the westward and eastward quasibiennial oscillation (QBO) phases, which may be the cause of differences in precipitation and drought
(i) Arctic air mass formed behind the cold front of the Atlantic cyclone extends into the western and central part of the East European Plain
Summary
Drought as a natural phenomenon affects the ecosystems for a long time causing catastrophic damage to the environment and human activities. The variability of grain yield and the fluctuation of seasonal precipitation on the European part of the former USSR were investigated under influence of quasibiennial oscillation in previous studies [21, 22]. The regional peculiarities of spring-and-summer rainfall precipitation, drought, and grain yield in the south of the East European Plain were revealed under the influence of quasibiennial oscillation of global atmospheric processes. The purposes of this paper are in investigation of possible influence of the quasibiennial oscillation on the variability of seasonal precipitation, frequency of the spring-summer atmospheric drought, and grain crop yields over the East European Plain and in the research of the cyclone and anticyclone activity in the temperate latitudes in both phases of the QBO
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