Risk prediction model of clinical mastitis in lactating dairy cows based on machine learning algorithms

Abstract

Mastitis is the most common disease among dairy cows and is known to have negative effects on both animal welfare and the profitability of dairy farms. Early detection of clinical mastitis cases is considered the best option for preventing cows from developing mastitis. In this study, we developed clinical mastitis prediction models that only required inputting common indicators from the automatic milking system. We utilized multidimensional data from the cow mastitis database of Afimilk (China) Agricultural Technology Co., Ltd. to predict mastitis in dairy cows. All data were screened for the period of 0–150 days of lactation. The data included parity, lactation day, period, mean and standard deviation of milk yield, of electrical conductivity, and of lying time, which were taken as input features. The classification of whether cows suffer from clinical mastitis was determined as output. We analyzed 426 cows with clinical mastitis and 2087 healthy cows by using four machine learning algorithms: Decision Tree, Random Forest, Back Propagation neural networks, and Support Vector Machines. In these four algorithms, the accuracy ranged from 94% to 98%, while the running times varied widely from seconds to minutes. The decision tree prediction model achieved an accuracy of 98% and the precision rate for healthy cows was 99%, while for mastitis cows it was 97%. Machine learning algorithms have played an important role in predicting cow mastitis, with the Decision Tree algorithm showing great performance and higher accuracy in our research.