Abstract
Oxygen lances (OLs) are important devices used in converter steel making. However, the occurrence of OL burning loss (OLBL) failure may lead to explosion accidents. To better prevent OLBL failure, it is necessary to perform a probabilistic assessment. Bow-tie analysis based on fuzzy theory was proposed to assess OLBL, which represents a hazardous event. In this paper, fuzzy theory based on triangular fuzzy numbers (TFNs) was applied to calculate the failure data. Fuzzy fault tree analysis (FFTA) in combination with the improved similarity aggregation method (ISAM) was employed to reduce the error generated due to the subjective judgement of experts. Furthermore, a comprehensive importance analysis method was developed to rank the importance of basic events (BEs), facilitating the adoption of the corresponding safety decisions. When performing fuzzy event tree analysis (FETA), the occurrence probability of outcome events (OEs) was determined by conducting a layer of protection analysis (LOPA). Finally, safety measures were proposed based on the assessment results to achieve safe production. The results indicated that the use of bow-tie analysis is appropriate to perform qualitative and quantitative assessment. Through bow-tie analysis based on fuzzy theory, the occurrence probability of OLBL was determined to be in the interval (5.34E − 02, 2.69E − 01). By adding independent protective layers (IPLs), the occurrence probability of OEs caused by OLBL can be effectively reduced.
Highlights
Between 1950 to 1951, the basic oxygen furnace (BOF) was built in Linz and Donawitz
OLs have many advantages, such as high blowing speed and realization of efficient production and satisfactory quality [1]. e Metallurgical Security Committee of China Association of Work Safety counted the number of production accidents of 36 large steel companies in 2016. ere were 424 accidents and 473 casualties. e processes that were most frequently involved in these accidents included other auxiliary production, iron making, and steel making, accounting for 61.02% of the total number of accidents. e OL is one of the most dangerous devices in the BOF production process, with the common failure types including OLBL, OL falling, and OL cracking
Mathematical Problems in Engineering energy consumption [3,4,5,6]. erefore, it is necessary to study the causes of OL failure in converter steel making and determine the occurrence probability of the OLBL, based on which reasonable and effective measures can be proposed to prevent the occurrence of major accidents
Summary
Between 1950 to 1951, the basic oxygen furnace (BOF) was built in Linz and Donawitz. An OL was applied in the production process, and it became a commonly used device with the optimization of the BOF production process. Erefore, it is necessary to study the causes of OL failure in converter steel making and determine the occurrence probability of the OLBL, based on which reasonable and effective measures can be proposed to prevent the occurrence of major accidents. E left side of the bow-tie diagram is the FT, and the occurrence pathways and probability of a hazardous event can be determined by performing the FTA. Bow-tie is one of the commonly used risk assessment methods that analyses the accident scenarios to determine the occurrence pathways and probability of BEs and OEs [11].
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