Abstract
The high hazard mechanical system (HHMS) has three characteristics in the petroleum and petrochemical industry (PPI): high risk, high cost, and high technology requirements. For a HHMS, part, component, and subsystem failures will result in varying degrees and various types of risk consequences, including unexpected downtime, production losses, economic costs, safety accidents, and environmental pollution. Thus, obtaining the quantitative risk level and distribution in a HHMS to control major risk accidents and ensure safe production is of vital importance. However, the structure of the HHMS is more complex than some other systems, making the quantitative risk analysis process more difficult. Additionally, a variety of uncertain risk data hinder the realization of quantitative risk analysis. A few quantitative risk analysis techniques and studies for HHMS exist, especially in the PPI. Therefore, a study on the quantitative risk analysis method for HHMS was completed to obtain the risk level and distribution of high-risk objects. Firstly, Fuzzy Set Theory (FST) was applied to address the uncertain risk data for the occurrence probability (OP) and consequence severity (CS) in the risk analysis process. Secondly, a fuzzy fault tree analysis (FFTA) and a fuzzy event tree analysis (FETA) were used to achieve quantitative risk analysis and calculation. Thirdly, a fuzzy bow-tie model (FBTM) was established to obtain a quantitative risk assessment result according to the analysis results of the FFTA and FETA. Finally, the feasibility and practicability of the method were verified with a case study on the quantitative risk analysis of one reciprocating pump system (RPS). The quantitative risk analysis method for HHMS can provide more accurate and scientific data support for the development of Asset Integrity Management (AIM) systems in the PPI.
Highlights
A statistical report from the Det Norske Veritas (DNV) showed that about 45% of the major accidents in the petroleum and petrochemical industry (PPI) in the last 50 years were caused by the high hazard mechanical system (HHMS) failure
A quantitative risk assessment method was presented for the HHMS in the PPI that
We proved that the calculated results were closed for the rules of addition, subtraction, assessment of the HHMS
Summary
A statistical report from the Det Norske Veritas (DNV) showed that about 45% of the major accidents in the petroleum and petrochemical industry (PPI) in the last 50 years were caused by the high hazard mechanical system (HHMS) failure. As the competition among companies has become increasingly intense in the PPI, the production safety requirements have continuously improved, resulting in a growing concern for the failure risk of HHMS. When the high-risk components in the mechanical system are quantitatively identified and assessed, hazard frequency and hazard severity can be effectively reduced and controlled to ensure the reliable operation and safe production [2]. Obtaining a quantitative risk assessment result for failure of subsystems, components, and parts of a HHMS in the PPI is important
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