A hybrid framework to assess the risk of change in construction projects using fuzzy fault tree and fuzzy event tree analysis

Abstract

Changes in construction projects are a common risk that often have an adverse impact on project performance. Thus, proactive change management plays a significant role in the successful completion of a project. The focus of this research is to develop a hybrid framework to manage change by evaluating the change formation and implementation phases proactively. In the proposed framework, first, fuzzy fault tree analysis is used to identify the root causes of a change and estimate the change occurrence probability. Then, fuzzy event tree analysis is employed to foresee the change implementation scenarios and assess their probabilities and degrees of impact on project objectives. Afterwards, a risk index is employed to describe the risks priority level of change. This framework enables the project team to prepare an effective risk response plan to manage the risk of change and reduce its detrimental effects on project performance.