Abstract
Risk assessment in marine hydrodynamics is an important part of ocean disaster and risk analysis. Its key scope lies in the identification of hydrodynamic risk factors and the forecast of their severity which is one of the most effective approaches to improve disaster protection capability, control risk and reduce damage and loss during a disaster. Haikou Bay is located off the north coast of Hainan Island, within Qiongzhou Strait, and close to the South China Sea.The most significant marine hydrodynamic disasters in the waters of Haikou Bay include storm surge, extreme waves and tsunami. The Holland wind and Monte Carlo method were integrated to predict storm surge elevation, and the SWAN model with the Pearson method was used to calculate the extreme waves and using USGS source parameters to predict tsunami waves. High water surface elevations are 3.75m, 3.02m and 2.68 with a return period of 500, 100 and 50 year respectively at Xiuying; an extreme water surge up to 4.42m from the Probable Maximum Storm Surge analysis; significant wave heights present with different return periods and wave directions; the maximum tsunami wave amplitude reaches 2.25m in case of all fault plates under a 9.0 earthquake.
Published Version
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More From: IOP Conference Series: Materials Science and Engineering
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