Integrating Monte Carlo and hydrodynamic models for estimating extreme water levels by storm surge in Colombo, Sri Lanka

Abstract

The prediction of high extremes in sustained water level is very important for coastal engineering design and planning. The recorded historical water level datasets in Colombo, Sri Lanka, are not long enough for the traditional frequency analysis in predicting extreme water levels, such as 50-, 100- and 200-year extreme water levels. In this study, the integrated ADCIRC + SWAN hydrodynamic model and Monte Carlo model have been applied to predict extreme water level in Colombo station of Sri Lanka. The meteorological driving forces of cyclone storm surge are simulated by Monte Carlo stochastic model. The calibrated ADCIRC model with SWAN wave model is used to simulate the potential surge setups with the driving forces generated by Monte Carlo model. By ranking the maximum high water levels in each storm surge procedure, the estimation on extreme high water levels for the desired return period is proposed in this study. The estimated extreme high water levels with return period of 50, 100 and 200 years are 1.28, 1.40 and 1.50 m correspondingly. The estimated extreme high water levels are recommended for engineering design and planning.