Abstract
Extreme all-direction wave conditions and joint probabilities of high waves and high water levels are derived at selected locations in the southern Arabian Gulf. The wave conditions are obtained using the spectral wave model SWAN with wind and offshore wave information procured from ocean weather, supplemented with local water level records. Wave transformations from offshore to nearshore and waves generated by local wind conditions are derived using wind speed and direction, offshore wave height, peak period and direction and water level inputs to the SWAN model. The model predicted extreme 3-hourly wind speeds for return periods ranging from 0.06 – 200 years and the wave conditions for each storm. The study indicates that future sea level rise to 2058 gives 1:50, 1:100 and 1:250 return period water levels of 2.64, 2.71 and 2.79 mCD respectively at Jebel Ali. Key words: Joint probability, extreme water levels, extreme waves, return period, wave modelling.
Highlights
The knowledge of extreme water level is essential in many design and operational activities in the marine environment, for the safety of public and for design of coastal and marine engineering structures
This paper presents the results of an investigation on extreme water levels in the coastal environs of the southern Gulf
The Simulating WAves Nearshore (SWAN) model is driven by wind and offshore wave data at 25.125°N, 54.8125°E supplied by ocean weather
Summary
The knowledge of extreme water level is essential in many design and operational activities in the marine environment, for the safety of public and for design of coastal and marine engineering structures. Desk assessment of water levels is carried out using ocean weather model This includes an assessment of future rise in sea level based on local records and archive data. Recent studies in southern Gulf, where more joint probability assessments have been carried out, show low levels of dependence between high waves and high sea levels (Sultan et al, 2003) This dependence, quantified as a correlation coefficient (ρ), has always been lesser than 0.4. The SWAN model is driven by wind and offshore wave data at 25.125°N, 54.8125°E (water depth: 19.25 m) supplied by ocean weather This data is based on a computational model hindcast of wave conditions derived from input wind fields and have been calibrated extensively in the region. The results took account of the tide, surge, wind conditions and offshore waves
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