Abstract
Earth-rock dams make up a large proportion of the dams in China, and their failures can induce great risks. In this paper, the risks associated with earth-rock dam failure are analyzed from two aspects: the probability of a dam failure and the resulting life loss. An event tree analysis method based on fuzzy set theory is proposed to calculate the dam failure probability. The life loss associated with dam failure is summarized and refined to be suitable for Chinese dams from previous studies. The proposed method and model are applied to one reservoir dam in Jiangxi province. Both engineering and non-engineering measures are proposed to reduce the risk. The risk analysis of the dam failure has essential significance for reducing dam failure probability and improving dam risk management level.
Highlights
Earth-rock dams account for more than 90% of all of the 90,000 reservoirs in China, among which nearly 30,000 reservoirs are in operation with defects
This paper mainly focuses on the risk analysis of earth-rock dams from the probability and life loss model of the dam failure [11,12,13]
After calculating the dam failure probability, we need to analyze the possible life loss caused by the dam failure and establish a life loss assessment model which is suitable for China, so as to serve the dam risk analysis and management
Summary
Earth-rock dams account for more than 90% of all of the 90,000 reservoirs in China, among which nearly 30,000 reservoirs are in operation with defects. Hartford et al [6] provided a contemporary description of evolving techniques for risk-based dam safety management They presented some new approaches (e.g., ETA method and comprehensive sections on consequence analysis), which are necessary for the estimation of risk and the planning of emergency preparedness. This paper mainly focuses on the risk analysis of earth-rock dams from the probability and life loss model of the dam failure [11,12,13]. After calculating the dam failure probability, we need to analyze the possible life loss caused by the dam failure and establish a life loss assessment model which is suitable for China, so as to serve the dam risk analysis and management. Through the statistical analysis of the history of dam breakage cases, summarizing the causes and modes of dam failure is highly necessary for reservoir dam risk assessment and emergency measures [17]
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