Temporal and spatial distribution of dam failure events in China

Abstract

Reservoirs play a vital role in economic development and flood control. Nevertheless, both human and natural factors may lead to dam failures with catastrophic consequences. Analyzing the data of dam failure events from 1954 to 2003 and using the method of energy spectrum analysis, this paper studies the periodicity of dam failures. The rate of failure of different dam ages is analyzed. The climate is the main factor affecting the rate of dam failure. Climate diagrams are used to analyze the spatial distribution of dam failure events in China. High rate of dam failure occurs with 25-year and 12.5-year periods. The distribution of the percentage of dam failure shows an L-shape as a function of service age. The first 5 years of operation is known as the ‘infant period’, during which, the probability of dam failure is much higher than during any other periods. The failure rate in areas near or north to the 400 mm annual isopluvial line is notably higher than other areas. In areas with high temperature difference among seasons have a high annual average dam failure rate.