Abstract
Abstract. Tangjiashan landslide dam, which was triggered by the Ms = 8.0 Wenchuan earthquake in 2008 in China, threatened 1.2 million people downstream of the dam. All people in Beichuan Town 3.5 km downstream of the dam and 197 thousand people in Mianyang City 85 km downstream of the dam were evacuated 10 days before the breaching of the dam. Making such an important decision under uncertainty was difficult. This paper applied a dynamic decision-making framework for dam-break emergency management (DYDEM) to help rational decision in the emergency management of the Tangjiashan landslide dam. Three stages are identified with different levels of hydrological, geological and social-economic information along the timeline of the landslide dam failure event. The probability of dam failure is taken as a time series. The dam breaching parameters are predicted with a set of empirical models in stage 1 when no soil property information is known, and a physical model in stages 2 and 3 when knowledge of soil properties has been obtained. The flood routing downstream of the dam in these three stages is analyzed to evaluate the population at risk (PAR). The flood consequences, including evacuation costs, flood damage and monetized loss of life, are evaluated as functions of warning time using a human risk analysis model based on Bayesian networks. Finally, dynamic decision analysis is conducted to find the optimal time to evacuate the population at risk with minimum total loss in each of these three stages.
Highlights
Introduction of thePast threatened 1.2 million people downstream of the dam
Three stages are identified with different levels of hydrological, geological to have a height of 82 m, width of 802 m, length of 611 m, dam volume of 20.4 millionGm3eaonsd claikeenctaipfiaccity of 316 million m3 (Cui et al, 2009I;nHsutertuaml.,e20n0t9a;tLioiunet al., 2010) as and social-economic information along the timeline of the landslide dam failure event
The flood consequences are closely related to the evacuation rate, sheltering rate and loss of life, which are estimated using a human risk analysis model (HURAM) based on Bayesian networks (Peng and Zhang, 2012a, b)
Summary
12 May 2008 in Sichuan China, a slope of Tangjiashan hill failed, which blocked theEJiaanrjitahngSRyivserteanmd formed a large the dam. Making such an important decision under uncertainty was difficult. Making framework for dam-break emergency management From the analysis of aerial photos, the dam was estimated (DYDEM) to help rational decision in the emergency management of the Tangjiashan landslide dam. Three stages are identified with different levels of hydrological, geological to have a height of 82 m, width of 802 m, length of 611 m, dam volume of 20.4 millionGm3eaonsd claikeenctaipfiaccity of 316 million m3 (Cui et al, 2009I;nHsutertuaml.,e20n0t9a;tLioiunet al., 2010) as and social-economic information along the timeline of the landslide dam failure event. The dam breaching parameters are shown in upstream oTfaBbleeic1h.uTanheTolawnndMswliidetheth3d0aom0d0sw0 raaessnlioddceanttesd, aantd38.55 km km upstream of Mianyang CityDwaittha1S12y7s0t0e0mressidents (Fig. 2)
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