Risk analysis and resilience assessment of China's oil imports after the Ukraine Crisis：A network-based dynamics model

Abstract

Global oil trade integration while creating a platform for risk spread. This study established a two-stage model for risk spread and recovery, simulating the cascading impact of oil supply shortage risks. On this basis, an assessment of the resilience of China's oil imports is conducted. The results indicate that, during the risk spread phase, countries causing a significant negative impact on China's oil imports may not necessarily be China's primary import sources. The proportion of indirect losses in Chinese oil imports due to Canadian oil supply shortages accounted for more than 70 % of the total losses. The United States, Singapore, Australia, the United Kingdom, and Brazil repeatedly act as intermediaries in risk spread. For the recovery phase, swiftly restoration of China's initial imports needs to establish new trade relationships with other non-traditional partners through competition. The top three countries in terms of accumulated new trade relationships are Korea (21), Turkmenistan (13), and Mexico (4). Regarding resilience, when the risk originates from Saudi Arabia, China demonstrates the weakest risk resistance, followed by Russia and Iran. The results not only serve as an early warning for China on regional oil supply risks but also provide policy directions for securing oil stable supply.