Abstract
In this paper, a risk optimization model is proposed to minimize the oil supply risk from the perspective of diversification. The results show that there is large room for both China and India to improve the oil supply security. China should reduce oil imports from Saudi Arabia and Russia while increasing oil imports from the United States and Kazakhstan. India should import more oil from America and Russia while substantially reducing imports from Iraq and Saudi Arabia. In terms of the regional analysis, the Middle East plays a crucial role in the oil import strategies. They account for almost half of the total oil imports to China and India. African countries provide an alternative choice to diversify their energy supply risks. Based on forecasts of oil demand, we investigate the optimal oil import strategies for both countries until 2030 and 2040. China’s imports from the United States and Kazakhstan are forecasted to increase by more than ten times by 2030. India should import four times as much oil from the United States as it does now and import 10 times more crude oil from Russia. Africa and North America will play a more important role in India’s oil supply security.
Highlights
Over the past two decades, the rapid economic growth of emerging Asian countries has greatly stimulated the demand for crude oil
Von Hippel et al comprehensively analyze the concepts of Energy Security and explain the reasons why oil supply has been the focus of energy security [1]. ey defined the central tenets of energy security policy as “(1) reduction of threats of oil supply and (2) operating in a mode of crisis management.”
We present the optimal strategies of China and India. e optimization forecasts for the period ending in 2030 and 2040 are proposed
Summary
Over the past two decades, the rapid economic growth of emerging Asian countries has greatly stimulated the demand for crude oil. A secure and stable oil supply plays an essential role in promoting continuous future economic growth. E security of oil supply is getting more and more attention from major importing countries, such as China and India. According to IEA, China and India were the world’s largest importers of crude oil. China had imported even more crude oil than other Asia-Pacific countries. China and India are forecasting to import more crude oil than the European Union. The crude oil import dependencies of China and India keep increasing and are expected to reach close to 80% in 2040, which makes the imports play a significant role in the energy security for both China and
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