The spatial pattern, driving factors and evolutionary trend of energy cooperation and consumption in the “Belt and Road Initiative” countries

Abstract

Controlling the sustained growth of energy consumption is a common concern worldwide. This research focuses on energy consumption in the “Belt and Road Initiative” (BRI) countries, which play a crucial role in shaping the global energy market, to enhance energy cooperation among them. Our methodology involves analyzing the spatial-temporal energy cooperation pattern among these countries, identifying the main drivers, and forecasting the future scale and structure of energy consumption in each BRI country. The results show that: (1) Following the “Belt and Road Initiative”, energy cooperation among BRI countries has been strengthened, with Poland, the Russian Federation, and India playing more vital roles in this cooperation network; (2) Affluent level and energy intensity are the main drivers of energy consumption. The former contributes to the growth of energy consumption and is relatively more important in developing BRI countries, while the latter shows adverse effects, especially in more developed BRI countries. Population scale also contributes to the growth of energy consumption, but its effect is minor and diminishing; (3) Future energy consumption in BRI countries shows an overall upward trend. Reducing energy consumption will still be a major challenge confronting BRI countries, especially China, the Russian Federation, India, and Indonesia.