Abstract
Implementation of the Grain for Green program (GGP) intensifies land use/cover change (LUCC) in the loess hilly-gully region. Clarifying the response of LUCC to the GGP and its driving forces are basic premises to implement the GGP more effectively for alleviating soil erosion in this region. This study analyzed the spatio-temporal characteristics of conversion of cultivated land to forest land and grassland in two study periods of 2000–2010 and 2010–2018. The transition matrix model and the dynamic degree model were utilized to explore changes among cultivated land, forest land, and grassland based on the remote sensing (RS) and monitoring data of land use in 2000, 2010, and 2018. Secondly, further detection on driving forces of increase of forest land and grassland was conducted through the logistic regression model. Fourteen driving factors were selected: the GGP, elevation, slope, population density, GDP per land area, distance to city, distance to residential area, etc. The results revealed that: (1) Area of cultivated land was mainly transferred to forest land and grassland during two study periods. The conversion of cultivated land to forest land and grassland occupied 21.48% and 68.01% of outward-transferring area of cultivated land from 2000 to 2010, and accounted for 13.26% and 74.3% from 2010 to 2018; (2) From the results of the logistic regression model, elevation, the GGP, annual mean temperature, slope III (6–15°), and GDP per land area were the main driving forces from 2000 to 2010. Moreover, the most prominent driving forces were the GGP, elevation, rural population density, slope III (6–15°), and soil pH from 2010 to 2018. The findings of this study can help us better understand the conversion of cultivated land to forest land and grassland under the GGP and provide a scientific basis to facilitate sustainable development of land resources in the study area.
Highlights
Due to soaring population growth and economic development, increasing demands for land resources, along with excessive consumption of virgin forests and grasslands, has resulted in overly rapid transformation of land cover and irreversible degradation of the ecological environment [1,2,3]
Tolerances of independent variables were between 0.5~0.95 and Variance Inflation Factor (VIF) was less than 10, which shows that collinearity between the independent variables was not serious and they can all be included in the logistic regression model
The value of the area under the ROC curve (AUC) was greater than 0.7, indicating that the chosen variables can adequately explain the conversion from cultivated land to forest land and grassland
Summary
Due to soaring population growth and economic development, increasing demands for land resources, along with excessive consumption of virgin forests and grasslands, has resulted in overly rapid transformation of land cover and irreversible degradation of the ecological environment [1,2,3]. Research revealed that the GGP has made remarkable achievements in alleviating soil erosion and sandstorm [8,10,11], reversing the trend of ecological deterioration, and promoting harmonious development between humans and nature through 20 years of construction [12,13,14]. This ecological restoration project will lead to large-scale, transformational land use changes and produce profound environmental and socio-economic impacts at both regional and national scales [15]. It is essential to explore the impact of the GGP on the process of land use change for understanding and assessing the effectiveness of large-scale ecological restoration efforts at both regional and national scales
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