Abstract
Understanding the impact of land use change on ecosystem service values (ESV) will provide a valuable reference for the formulation and implementation of ecological restoration programs (ERPs) and land use policies. The Guizhou Province is a typical karst region with a fragile ecosystem in southwest China. During the past decades, multiple ERPs, especially the Grain for Green Program (GFGP), have been implemented in this region, which has resulted in dramatic land use change. However, how the ESV responded to land use change in Guizhou Province remains unclear. Moreover, few studies have addressed the response of ESV to different intensities of ERPs in the future. This study adopted the benefit transfer method to quantitatively evaluate the contributions of different land use transitions to ESV change in Guizhou Province from 2000 to 2020. Moreover, we designed three GFGP scenarios to explore the response of ESV to the intensity of GFGP and identify the priority areas. The results showed that the total ESV in Guizhou Province experienced a net increase of 10.64 billion USD from 2000 to 2020, which was mainly attributed to the expansion of forestland and water area. However, the transition from forestland to farmland resulted in a loss of 5.07 billion USD in ESV, accounting for 53.66% of the total ESV loss, which should receive enough attention. The total ESV will increase by 17.07 billion USD, 30.16 billion USD, and 48.58 billion USD under mild GFGP, moderate GFGP, and strong GFGP scenarios, respectively. The high-intensity GFGP enhanced the trade-off relationship between provision services and the other three kinds of services (i.e. regulating services, culture services, and habitant services). The moderate GFGP scenario (i.e. converting farmland on a slope greater than 20° into forestland) was the optimal intensity in Guizhou Province and Zunyi, Bijie, and Qiandongnan should be the priority areas to implement GFGP in the future. The trade-off relationship between ecosystem services should be taken into consideration and the suitable intensity of GFGP should be determined based on local characteristics in the formulation and implementation of GFGP. This study can provide references for formulating and optimizing ecological restoration policy in Guizhou Province.
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