Abstract
Accurately simulating the dynamic evolution of the behaviors of different decision-makers (DMs) is essential for identifying solutions to transboundary water conflicts. The purpose of this study is to present a dynamic evolutionary analysis model for simulating the behavior of different water users and solving the problem of transboundary water conflicts. To accomplish this goal, a revenue function, which can objectively evaluate the relative preferences of different DMs in water conflicts, was constructed to improve the graph model for conflict resolution (GMCR) model. A demonstration area in the Yangtze River Delta on ecologically friendly development (DAYRD) in China is applied to demonstrate the applicability of the improved method. The results show that the improved GMCR model based on the revenue function can accurately simulate the dynamic evolution of transboundary water conflicts and avoid the influence of subjective factors of researchers or experts in the traditional method. Additionally, the results indicated that water conflicts in the DAYRD can be transformed from the status quo (conflict) to the target state (cooperation) by effectively controlling the intensity of third-party intervention. These findings provide useful insights for the resolution of transboundary water conflicts and enhance our understanding of the role of third parties in transforming conflict into cooperation.
Highlights
The sustainable use of water resources is increasingly threatened by the combined impact of population growth, rapid urbanization, climate change, regional imbalances, water shortages, water pollution, and water safety, making the protection and management of water resources increasingly difficult (Garrick and De Stefano, 2016; Lu et al, 2015; Zanjanian et al, 2018)
As a third party with higher powers, the river basin management authority will be able to formulate a reasonable punishment system, and the punishment amount should be greater than the protection costs shared by local governments to prompt local governments to take cooperative actions
To accurately and objectively simulate the dynamic evolution of the behaviors of different DMs and to find effective solutions to transboundary water conflicts, this study proposes an improved Graph Model for Conflict Resolution (GMCR) model
Summary
The sustainable use of water resources is increasingly threatened by the combined impact of population growth, rapid urbanization, climate change, regional imbalances, water shortages, water pollution, and water safety, making the protection and management of water resources increasingly difficult (Garrick and De Stefano, 2016; Lu et al, 2015; Zanjanian et al, 2018). Triggered transboundary water conflicts among stakeholders in the process of water sharing place additional pressure on coordination and cooperation across administrative regions (Degefu et al, 2016; Garrick and De Stefano, 2016; Taravatrooy et al, 2019). The causes of transboundary water conflicts are the different interests of stakeholders in flood control, water quantity, water quality or shipping, as well as economic development and protection costs (Yu et al, 2015; Yu et al, 2019b). Accurately identifying the interests of DMs and simulating the dynamic evolution of the behaviors of different decisionmaking are essential for finding approaches to resolve transboundary water conflicts and promoting regional cooperation and sustainable development (UN Water, 2013; Veldkamp et al, 2017; Yu et al, 2019b)
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