Abstract
One of the most important environmental issues today is the water crisis and the ensuing security challenges. Of these, transboundary waters pose the most significant security challenges. Resolving these conflicts and agreements over transboundary waters has always faced a variety of challenges, making it difficult to reach a mutually agreed solution. One of the transboundary water conflicts that have been exacerbating in recent years is the conflict between Afghanistan, Iran, and Turkmenistan over the use of the Harirud river water resources. The present paper aims to analyze, using the Graph Model for Conflict Resolution (GMCR), a game theory model, the conflict between the three countries regarding the utilization of the water resources of the border river, Harirud. To this purpose, first, the current state of the conflict was investigated. Then, each of the three countries’ possible options and preferences was defined according to the past and present state of the conflict as well as the possible states. By defining the permissible movements and priorities of each decision maker, the equilibrium of the conflict was obtained. Next, four scenarios were defined, the equilibria were extracted in each scenario, and the results were interpreted. The implementation of the GMCR model algorithm regarding the Harirud water conflict between the three countries indicated that the current state is the most likely outcome of the conflict as none of the parties involved, given their preferences, and is motivated or able to change their strategy to help the conflict to a more favorable state.
Highlights
One of the most critical environmental issues [1] today is the water crisis and the ensuing security challenges [2]
Giving up the Harirud river waters, which it receives through the Doosti Dam, Turkmenistan uses other resources to meet its water needs in the Karakum Plain
(v) the World Bank mediation would require that Iran and Turkmenistan, in good faith, cease to apply any covert or open, limited or intense pressure on Afghanistan, and, instead, provide incentives to draw Afghanistan to cooperation. us, such mediation will facilitate the formation of a compromise profitable to all the parties. e analysis results show that the Iran-Turkmenistan’s lawsuit against Afghanistan in the International Court of Justice and the ICJ’s arbitration decision on requiring Afghanistan to negotiate could help both Afghanistan’s abandoning unilateral control strategy and the conclusion of a treaty dividing the Harirud river water rights
Summary
One of the most critical environmental issues [1] today is the water crisis and the ensuing security challenges [2]. Is issue is not an unexpected one for those countries in arid and semiarid areas, especially in the Middle-East countries In these countries, surface waters such as shared rivers are expected to cause the most conflicts in the future, so the governments in these countries pay particular attention to the water issue [17]. Erefore, it is expected that this will increase the conflicts between the three countries over how to utilize and allocate water resources of this shared border river. Erefore, the present paper uses GMCR and different scenarios in an attempt to analyze the conflict over the utilization of the Harirud river water resources in noncooperative conditions. 2. Methodology e present paper aims to investigate the conflict between the three countries Afghanistan [29], Iran, and Turkmenistan, over the utilization of the shared border river Harirud using GMCR, one of the game’s non-cooperative models theory.
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