Resilience to disruptions: a missing piece of contingency planning in projects

Abstract

ABSTRACT The available studies on contingency planning in projects lack an effective method for accurately estimating time contingencies because they (1) do not account for historically unprecedented disruptions, (2) produce estimation errors for low-probability and high-impact events and (3) do not consider the disproportionate impact of disruptive events on project resources. With this in mind, this research posits that the notion of resilience is central to contingency planning because understanding disruptions is directly interconnected with modelling and measuring resilience to disruptions. As a result, a method for estimating time contingency is presented in which resilience is used to describe the disruption and recovery profiles of project activities. The proposed method is applied in a real-life construction project to demonstrate its capability. In addition, a case study from the literature is selected to compare the proposed method with a critical chain project management solution. The results show that an accurate forecast of time contingency requires precise information about the specific impact of a disruptive event on project resources across various stages of disruptions. From a practical standpoint, the proposed method assists project managers and key stakeholders in the delay analysis of disrupted projects, as well as in developing cost-effective resource management plans.