Research on Water Level Trends of the Middle Yangtze River Based on Mann-Kendall and ARIMA Model

Abstract

The middle Yangtze River is the throat and hub zone of the Yangtze golden channel, and the water level is an important limiting factor of the Yangtze River shipping. This paper used Mann-Kendall and ARIMA methods to study the trend of water level changes in the middle Yangtze River. To test the time series of water level in the middle Yangtze River by Mann-Kendall test model, and to analyze the variations of water level changes. Because of the irregular of water level changes, to study the trend of water level changes in the middle Yangtze River by ARIMA model. Model results show that the majority segment of the middle Yangtze River will appear the duration of low water level in 2013-2020, and the period of high water level will have no significant change compared to historical data. This conclusion is made that helps the choice of organizational form the middle Yangtze River shipping, standardization of ship and development research strategies of the Yangtze River shipping logistics systems.