Research on the impact of marine ecological civilization demonstration zone policies on the green development level of China's marine economy: A quasi natural experiment based on coastal cities

Abstract

In the context of the current ecologicalization of social policies, the National Marine Ecological Civilization Construction Demonstration Zone led by the Chinese government is not only a carrier of marine ecological civilization construction, but also a test field for building a maritime power and promoting the sustainable development of the marine economy and society. This paper considers the establishment of the demonstration zones as a "quasi-natural experiment". Utilizing panel data from 53 prefecture-level and above cities in China from 2006 to 2020, a time‑varying difference‑in‑difference model is applied to examine whether this ecological policy can promote the elevation of green development levels of the marine economy, aiming to achieve a harmonious balance between "clear waters and green mountains" and "mountains of gold and silver". The results indicate that the establishment of the demonstration zones significantly enhances the level of green development of the marine economy. Technological innovation and industrial structure are identified as two crucial mechanisms influencing green development of the marine economy, both exhibiting positive mediating effects. The impact of the establishment of the demonstration zones on the promotion of green development of the marine economy is more pronounced in the East China coastal region and the Central-south coastal region compared to the North China and Northeast coastal regions. Additionally, this policy effectively stimulates green development of the marine economy in medium and small cities and non-resource-based cities. Finally, corresponding policy recommendations are proposed from the perspectives of differentiated strategies, industrial structure adjustments, and technological innovation mechanisms.