Abstract
PurposeChina's marine economy occupies an important position within the national economy, and its contribution thereto is constantly improving. The overall operation of the marine economy shows positive developmental trends with potential for further growth. The purpose of this research is to analyse the prosperity of China's marine economy, reveal trends therein and forecast the likely turning point in its operation.Design/methodology/approachBased on the periodicity and fluctuation of China's marine economy development, China's marine economic prosperity indicator system is established from five perspectives. On this basis, China's marine economic operation prosperity index can be synthesised and calculated, then a dynamic factor model is constructed. Using the filtering method to calculate China's marine economic operational Stock–Watson index, Markov switching has been used to determine the trend to transition. Furthermore, China's current marine economic prosperity is evaluated through analysis of influencing factors and correlation analysis.FindingsThe analysis shows that, from 2017 to 2019, the operation of the marine economy is relatively stable, and the prosperity index supports this finding; meanwhile it also exposes problems in China's marine economy, such as an unbalanced industrial structure, low marine economic benefits and insufficient capacity for sustainable development.Originality/valueThrough the analysis of the prosperity of China's marine economy, the authors reveal the trends in China's marine economy and forecast its likely future turning point.
Highlights
China’s marine economy occupies an important position within the national economy, and its contribution thereto is constantly improving
The analysis shows that, from 2017 to 2019, the operation of the marine economy is relatively stable, and the prosperity index supports this finding; it exposes problems in China’s marine economy, such as an unbalanced industrial structure, low marine economic benefits and insufficient capacity for sustainable development
Review and analysis of the prosperity of China’s marine economy At present, the marine economy occupies a key position within the national economy and constantly promotes the development thereof
Summary
The marine economy is generally undergoing healthy development, with strong momentum and potential to grow. Since 2003, the state has continuously issued policy documents to support the development of the marine industry. © Li Xuemei, Benshuo Yang, Yun Cao, Liyan Zhang, Han Liu, Pengcheng Wang and Xiaomei Qu. Published in Marine Economics and Management.
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