Research on system dynamics model of collaborative development of logistics and local GDP based on panel data

Abstract

This article is based on the principle of the mutual influence of the regional economy and logistics, and then through the construction of a system dynamic model for the development of logistics and local GDP, using the VENSIM computer software to analyze the panel in a certain area from 2011 to 2020. The data realizes simulation analysis, and then through the comparison of the simulation data, the policy experiment is studied from the aspects of the relationship between local logistics and local economic development, the natural growth coefficient of logistics development, and related industrial policies, and the conclusion is drawn from the experimental results: regional economy, logistics supply and demand show a positive relationship with the natural growth system of logistics, and the regional economic development environment and the entire local logistics system together form a dynamic coupling system. If the regional industrial structure develops in the direction of a well-developed "Three Two One" industrial structure At this time, the proportion of logistics supply and demand will be reduced to a large extent, so that the increase in logistics demand in the region will be activated to meet the rapid growth of economic needs; if the total economic volume of a region increases by 10% , then the logistics demand in the region will grow rapidly in the next few years, and the growth rate is basically the same as that of the regional economy.