Research on Beijing Total Logistics Demand Prediction Based on Grey Prediction Model

Abstract

As an important part of regional logistics demand forecasting in logistics system planning, in order to develop regional logistics development policy, planning and construction of logistics infrastructure, provide the basis for the necessary for analysis of the logistics market development trend. Due to the development of China's logistics industry is still in its infancy stage, various statistical data of logistics demand forecast needs is not complete, in the limited sample data, how to make a reasonable demand forecast for regional logistics has become a very important research topic. Beijing as Chinese political economic center, is the domestic cargo turnover, and an important hub for import and export, As the core of the Bohai Sea Economic Circle, Beijing in the regional economic development as a transport hub and logistics channel plays a more and more important role, therefore, should be on the Beijing logistics demand forecast analysis. This paper analyzes the present situation of Beijing logistics development, starting from the total economic output, economic structure, economic location and other aspects, basic economic situation of Beijing is analyzed. From the transportation infrastructure construction present situation, the current status of development of logistics industry, logistics enterprises are analyzed in terms of status and problems of Beijing logistics development; then further analysis of Beijing logistics development environment, all of these indicate that it is very necessary for Beijing logistics demand forecast. Using the econometric model to analyze and forecast the total demand analysis of Beijing logistics, discusses the influencing factors of Beijing logistics demand, thus the construction of index system of logistics demand forecast, and selects freight, freight turnover as a quantitative index to measure the total quantity of logistics demand, using the Eviews model and the analysis, obtains the Beijing logistics demand presents the fast growth to the situation in the future five years.