Research on Sustainable Utilization of Water Resources Based on Grey Prediction Model

Abstract

Because of people’s increasing demand for water resources and excess usage of existing water, water shortage exists in many countries. Accordingly, the research on how to solve the water scarcity is of great value. Considering the dynamic influence of time on water resource supply and demand and the two factors including the degree of water resource exploitation and per capita availability of water, the water resource supply and demand model is built to measure the capacity of the region to offer clean water. Building up the grey prediction model to predict the following 15years’ population situation and the total water resource supply in north China. By combining the model in before, the result that the demand for water resource is greater than the supply is concluded, which means severe water scarcity. The water scarcity causes the decrease of agricultural planting output, the change of planting structure, the reduction of industrial agglomeration and the residents' daily usage of water not reaching the living standard.