Analysis of Water Supply and Demand based on Logistic Model

Abstract

With the development of economy and the increasing growth rate of population, people’s increasing demand for water resources and the unreasonable exploitation and usage of water resource, water scarcity exists in many countries and regions. Accordingly, the research on how to solve the water scarcity is of great value. Firstly, considering the dynamic influence of time on water resource supply and demand and the two factors including the degree of water resource exploitation and per capita availability of water, the water resource supply and demand model is built to measure the capacity of the region to offer clean water. This paper selected the lower per capita water use in north China as the object. This water scarcity in this area is severe due to its large population, less natural water distribution, large proportion of agriculture and low usage of industrial and agricultural water. Secondly, building up the Logistic model and grey prediction model to predict the following 15 years’ population situation and the total water resource supply in north China. Use the intervention plan which combined waste water recycling and water transfer project to intervene water resources. Lastly, combined with intervention plan and introducing validity coefficients to improve the supply and demand model of water resources, it can be estimated that by the year of 2020, water scarcity in the certain area will be alleviated.